I don’t generally go for political punditry or prognostication, but I suppose there?s a first time for everything.
The Conservatives want an election as soon as possible. My guess is that the Liberals will once again win power. Why? Two reasons: the Canadian public doesn?t care and, for some reason, the Canadian public is afraid of the Conservatives. This means that people will vote for the Liberals in spite of the corruption or they will vote for anyone other than the Conservatives, giving seats to the Liberals or spreading them out to the NDP, Bloc and Green Party and independents.
I imagine that Paul Martin and the Liberals will present themselves as the ?victims?: victims of previous corruption unrelated to the current administration and victims of Stephen Harper?s hunger for power. Stephen Harper is not interested in the good of the country, they will say, nor is he interested in a stable government ; he?s too interested in taking power to care about the country. And the public will buy it.
This isn?t a mini-campaign for the Conservatives; I voted for them in the last election, but it was literally a last-minute decision and came down to seeing the Conservatives as the lesser of the three evils in the running; I later regretted not voting for the Green Party. I?m not sure who I?ll vote for this time around.
I?m frustrated that even in the face of extreme corruption the Liberals are still able to the favour of the majority of the voting public. One would think that this kind of mismanagement and thievery would topple a government, in parliament and in the public eye; not in Canada.
Even if the sponsorship scandal hadn?t been exposed or hadn?t even happened, part of me would still want to say, Give someone else a chance. The Liberals have been in power too long; it?s getting too easy for them and they?re getting too comfortable. The public gets comfortable, the Liberal MPs get start taking their power for granted, and democracy starts slipping away.
It?s tough to know how to vote. I generally think I should vote with my heart and mind, which means not worrying about who can actually win, but voting for change may require one to vote strategically rather than passionately. It?s time for the Liberals to take a breather, but if everyone votes for someone other than the Conservatives, the Liberals will take power again. I hate to use the word ?mandate? (I don?t know why), but electing the Liberals again would be giving them a mandate to do as they please.
The polls seem to indicate a gradual shift back to the Liberals after a blip of Conservative support. I’d say the Conservatives would be better off waiting until after Gomery’s report. But then they may not get my vote, so what do they care what I say?